基于偏最小二乘回归的铁路运输收入分析研究

Research on Railway Transport Revenue Based on Partial Least Squares Regression

铁路运输收入是反映铁路运输企业盈利能力的重要指标之一,分析影响铁路运输收入的关键因素,建立计算铁路运输收入的数学模型,对提高计算速度,促进铁路运输收入增长具有重要意义。本文基于中国铁道年鉴统计数据,选取铁路营业里程、车辆数、旅客与货物的发送量、周转量等9项影响因素,采用偏最小二乘回归模型解决因素间多重相关性的问题,并与最小二乘回归模型结果进行对比。研究结果表明:运用偏最小二乘回归法计算结果精确可靠,与铁路运输收入呈正相关的主要因素为铁路货车辆数、旅客发送量以及旅客周转量,铁路客车辆数、货物周转量对铁路运输收入影响呈负相关。

Railway transport revenue is one of the most important indicators to reflect the profitability of railway transport enterprises.Analyzing the key factors affecting the railway transport revenue and establishing the mathematical model for calculating the railway transport revenue are of great significance to speeding up the calculation and increasing the railway transport revenue.Based on the statistics from China Railway Yearbook,9 influential factors such as railway mileage,number of vehicles,delivery volume of passengers and freight,turnover rate and so on were selected.Partial least-squares regression model was used to solve the problem of multiple correlations between factors,compared with the results using the least square regression model.The results show that the method of partial least squares regression is accurate and reliable.The main factors positively related to the revenue from railway transportation are the number of railway vehicles,the volume of passengers sent and the turnover of passengers.However,the influence of railway passenger cars and freight turnover on railway transport revenue is negatively correlated.