基于用地区位的停车需求预测研究

Parking Demand Forecast Model Based on the Analysis of Demand Land-use and Location

停车规划的关键一步是停车需求预测,现行的停车需求预测主要是以用地功能为核心的预测模型,但该类模型考虑的影响因素比较单一,且有适用范围窄、预测精度不高等问题存在,并不能准确的进行停车需求预测。通过实际调研发现,用地区位条件与停车需求之间的关系比较密切。区位条件主要包括地理位置、交通状况、社会经济条件,重点分析三个因素内部因子的影响,建立区位条件和三个因素之间的关系模型。通过引进区位优势到停车需求预测模型,以达到对停车生成率模型进行改进的效果。最后将该模型运用到实际停车规划项目,验证了该预测模型的可操作性和实用性。

The parking demand forecast is the key of parking planning,but the factors that current parking demand forecast model on the basis of land is single,which can’t well predict the real parking requirement because of its low prediction accuracy and small range of application.There are great close relation between the land location and parking demand.Location factor includes geographic position,traffic state and socioeconomic status,the paper focused on the analysis of the influence of inner factors of three elements,and established the model to describe the relationship between location condition and the three factors.The paper put the location advantage into the parking demand forecast,which made the parking generation rate model more accurate.Finally,a case study had made to validate the operability and practicability of the predictive model.