基于D-S证据理论的城市轨道交通与常规公交协调综合评价

Comprehensive Coordination Evaluation of Urban Rail Transit and Conventional Transit Based on D-S Evidence Theory

为了科学准确地评价城市轨道交通与常规公交协调水平,提出一种基于D-S证据理论的城市轨道交通与常规公交协调评价方法。通过综合考虑城市轨道交通与常规公交协调的影响因素,从线网协调、站点协调、运营协调三个方面建立评价指标体系,引入C-OWA算子实现指标赋权,运用D-S证据理论计算各评价因素的信任区间以及评价的不确定度,借助证据融合算法对各专家的评价结果进行融合以确定协调等级,并设计算例验证了该方法的合理性与有效性。算例分析表明,基于D-S证据理论的城市轨道交通与常规公交协调评价方法能够减弱专家的主观偏好造成的不利影响,可提高了最终评价结果的可靠程度。

In order to evaluate the coordination level of urban rail transit and conventional transit scientifically and accurately,a method of coordination evaluation of urban rail transit and conventional transit based on D-S evidence theory is proposed.Firstly,through comprehensive consideration of the influencing factors of coordination between urban rail transit and conventional transit,an evaluation index system was established from three aspects:coordination of line network,station and operation.Then,the C-OWA operator was introduced to realize the index empowerment.Then,the trust interval of each evaluation factor and the uncertainty of evaluation were calculated by using D-S evidence theory.Finally,an example was designed to verify the rationality and effectiveness of the method.The analysis shows that the coordinated evaluation method of urban rail transit and conventional transit based on D-S evidence theory can effectively reduce the adverse effects caused by the subjective preferences of experts and improve the reliability of the final evaluation results.