基于DHGF模型的铁路物流金融风险评价

Railway Logistics Financial Risk Assessment Based on DHGF Model

论文以铁路物流金融业务风险管理为对象,运用DHGF模型分析和评估铁路物流金融业务风险。基于铁路物流金融发展特点,从铁路物流企业角度构建铁路物流金融风险评价指标体系,采用融合德尔菲法、层次分析法、灰色系统理论和模糊评价理论的DHGF综合评价模型进行实例分析,有效识别和评估铁路物流金融业务中的各类风险,为铁路物流企业识别、评价和规避风险提供依据,有针对性地提出了风险控制建议,为铁路物流企业的决策提供参考。

As an important development direction of modern logistics,logistics financial services provide an opportunity for the transformation of railway logistics enterprises to third-party logistics enterprises.At the same time,the development of railway logistics finance business faces multiple risks,such as financing enterprise risks,pledge risks,and regulatory risks.In order to improve the risk management and control of the railway logistics financial business,the DHGF model is used to analyze and evaluate the risk of railway logistics financial business.Aiming at the characteristics of railway logistics finance development,this paper constructs an evaluation index system of railway logistics finance risk from the perspective of railway logistics enterprises.The DHGF comprehensive evaluation model,which combines Delphi method,analytic hierarchy process,grey system theory and fuzzy evaluation theory,is used for case analysis to effectively identify and evaluate various risks in railway logistics financial business,providing a basis for identifying,evaluating and avoiding risks for railway logistics enterprises.At the same time,some suggestions on risk control are put forward to provide reference for decision-making of railway logistics enterprises.