伤亡事故中发生逃逸行为的影响因素分析

Identifying the Influential Factors on Hit-and-run Behavior in Casualty Crashes

道路交通伤亡事故是交通安全研究的焦点,伤亡事故中的肇事逃逸行为不仅违法,更因延误应急救援而备受关注。为辨别逃逸行为在伤亡事故中发生的显著性因素,基于美国密歇根州事故数据,采用logistic模型,对事故各因素及交叉变量进行验证,并对所建模型的参数估计进行分析。结果表明:成年体肇事人、家用车辆肇事、夜晚时间段和成年体肇事人&客车肇事、成年体肇事人&家用车辆肇事、成年体肇事人&夜晚时间段对伤亡逃逸事故的发生有促进作用;而事故发生在车道内、肇事人受伤、女性肇事人和肇事人受伤&女性肇事、肇事人受伤&车道内事故、女性肇事&客车肇事、农村道路&不良天气情况下能明显减少伤亡事故中逃逸行为发生的概率。

The casualty crashes of road traffic are the research focus of traffic safety,the hit-and-run behavior in casualty crashes not only violates the law,but also attracts much attention because of delays in emergency rescue.In order to identify the factors influencing hit-and-run behavior in casualty crashes,the paper employs the logistic model to examine every influential factors and partially crossing variables by the formation of dummy variables,based on the road traffic crash data of Michigan,USA.The results indicate that adult perpetrator,household vehicle,night time and adult perpetrator&passenger car cause trouble,adult perpetrator&household vehicle,adult perpetrator&night time have significant impacts on the occurrence of hit-and-run behavior,while crash occurred in road lane,injured perpetrator,female troublemaker and injured perpetrator&female troublemaker,injured perpetrator&crash occurred in road lane,female troublemaker&passenger car cause trouble,rural road&bad weather are associated with the less occurrence probability of hit-and-run significantly.