中印两国贸易的竞争性、互补性与贸易潜力——基于随机前沿引力模型

The Trade Competitiveness,Complementarity and Potential between China and India

利用中国和印度与其主要贸易伙伴2007-2016年的相关数据,在测算中印贸易竞争性与互补性的基础上,构建随机前沿引力模型和非效率模型研究中印两国贸易潜力。回归结果表明中国和印度间的贸易效率不高,并且贸易效率受到自由贸易协定、基础设施水平和货币自由度的正面影响,以及总体关税水平的负面影响。因此,中印两国间贸易潜力巨大,建立中印自由贸易区、提高两国基础设施水平和货币自由度,有利于挖掘中印两国的贸易潜力,提高两国间的贸易效率。

Based on the relevant data of China and India and their major trading partners from 2007 to 2016, this paper constructed the stochastic frontier gravity model and non-efficiency model based on the measurement of the trade competitiveness and trade complementarity, and studied the trade potential between China and India. The regression results of the model indicate that the trade efficiency between China and India is always low, which is positively impacted by FTA,the overall level of infrastructure and degrees of currency freedom, as well as negatively impacted by the overall level of tariffs. The trade potential between China and India is tremendous. By building China-India Free Trade Zone,enhancing the level of infrastructure and degrees of currency freedom, the trade efficiency and the economic and trade relations between China and India will be improved.