摘要
使用Frankel和Wei建立的计量模型,选取33个'一带一路'沿线货币汇率作为样本,利用SUR方法,分阶段对人民币和美元、欧元、日元、英镑四大国际货币对'一带一路'沿线货币汇率的影响力进行实证检验。结果表明,人民币对'一带一路'沿线货币汇率的影响力不断增强,并且在东南亚地区、东亚地区的韩国、南亚地区的印度、东欧地区的俄罗斯以及非洲地区的南非尤为显著,但仍不及美元和欧元。我国应积极推动人民币成为贸易计价和结算货币,完善人民币的国际循环机制,深化与'一带一路'沿线地区的货币和金融合作,借助AIIB和丝路基金等投融资平台,充分发挥中国在国际投融资领域的主导优势。
This paper follows the empirical analytical framework developed by Frankel and Wei,choosing 33 currencies along the'Belt and Road'as the samples,using SUR approaches to test empirically how currencies along the'Belt and Road'are affected by RMB along with four other major international currencies including US dollar,Euro,Japanese yen and Great Britain Pound.The estimation results show that the impact of RMB exchange rate on the currencies along the'Belt and Road'is gradually enhancing,especially in Southeast Asia,South Korea in East Asia,India in South Asia,Russia in Eastern Europe,and South Africa in Africa.Even so,the impact of RMB is still less than US dollar and Euro.In order to further boost the impact of RMB along the'Belt and Road',China should actively promote the RMB as the invoicing and settlement currency in trade cooperation between China and the regions along the'Belt and Road',deepen monetary and financial cooperation with each other,take full advantages of its own dominance in international investment and fund raising by means of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB)and the Silk Road Fund.
作者
李俊久
蔡琬琳
Li Jun-jiu;Cai Wan-lin
出处
《亚太经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第3期37-45,150,共10页
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
基金
国家社科基金一般项目“国际公共产品供给与美国霸权地位维系研究”(16BGJ036)
吉林大学哲学社会科学研究重大课题培育项目“‘一带一路’的货币地理与人民币国际化战略研究”(2018ZDPY02)
