美国对华钢铁产品反倾销的贸易效应研究

Research on the Trade Effect of the United States Anti-Dumping on Chinese Steel Products

美国对华钢铁产品的反倾销调查作为中美贸易摩擦的典型案例,具有很强的理论和现实意义。作者利用1995-2015年间美国对华钢铁产品的HS10涉案产品月度数据,利用OLS回归模型,引用申请前、申请后、初裁前、初裁后、终裁前、终裁后六个虚拟变量进行了分析,结果表明:无论终裁结果如何,只要美国政府做出肯定性初裁,涉案产品对美出口量都会减少;美国从墨西哥、印尼等竞争国进口同类涉案产品数量会增加;中国的涉案产品会增加向第三方市场的出口,且更多的是向发展中国家而非发达国家偏转。最后,根据分析结果对今后中国钢铁产业如何应对国外反倾销调查提出了相应的对策建议。

The anti-dumping investigation of steel products initiated by the USA against China is a typical case of Sino-US trade friction and has strong theoretical and realistic significance.The author use the monthly data of iron and steel products anti-dumping cases in 1995-2015 which was initiated by the USA against China,using OLS model,cite six dummy variables which are before the application,after the application,before the preliminary,after the preliminary,before final decision and after the final decision.The result shows that once the the US government make the affirmative preliminary,no matter what the final decision is,the export volume of the products to the US will decrease.And imports of similar products from competing countries such as Mexico and Indonesia will increase;Moreover,China’s exports of the products involved will increase to the third market,but more to developing countries than developed countries.Finally,this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures for the iron and steel industry to cope with foreign anti-dumping in the future.