孟中印缅经济走廊的贸易效率及潜力研究——基于随机前沿引力模型分析

Study on the Trade Efficiency and Potential of the BCIM Economic Corridor Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

孟中印缅经济走廊建设是'一带一路'建设的重要合作项目之一,也是中国与南亚进行交流合作的重要方式。以2007-2017年面板数据,采用随机前沿引力模型估计孟中印缅的贸易效率和贸易潜力,并用一步法对影响贸易效率的主要因素进行分析。结果表明,中国和孟印缅三国的贸易效率总体偏低,并且随着时间的推移在不断下降;影响贸易效率的主要因素是区域一体化、进口的便利性以及海上运输的便利性;孟中印缅区域的贸易潜力巨大,尤其是中国和印度之间。未来,中国应该和孟印缅三国一起加快自贸区战略的实施,加强海运网络构建,减少贸易壁垒,尤其是要和印度进行双边贸易谈判,加强各国的基础设施建设。

The construction of Bangladesh,China,India and Myanmar Economic Corridor is one of the important cooperative projects of the'Belt and Road'and an important way of cooperation between China and South Asia.In this paper,the panel data from 2007-2017 are used to estimate the trade efficiency and trade potential of Bangladesh,China,India and Myanmar by using the stochastic frontier gravity model.The main factors affecting trade efficiency are analyzed with a one-step method.The results show that the trade efficiency of China,Bangladesh,India and Myanmar is on the low side,and it is declining with time;the main factors affecting trade efficiency are regional integration,convenience of import and convenience of maritime transport;The trade potential of the BCIM region is great,especially between China and India;In the future,China should work with Bangladesh,India and Myanmar to accelerate the strategy of the Free Trade Zone,strengthen the construction of maritime transport network,reduce trade barriers,especially to engage in bilateral trade negotiations with India and strengthen infrastructure construction.