相对获益与美国对华高技术进口限制研究

Relative Gains and U. S. Advanced Technology Import Restrictions on China

2018年以来,美国针对《中国制造2025》中提出的高技术产品进行大规模进口限制。本文利用基于绝对获益和相对获益的两阶段博弈决策模型,以美国对华高技术进口限制为例,解析了相对获益与美国实施高技术进口限制的关系。即美国希望通过对华高技术进口限制,在政治安全、经济、技术创新竞争和全球价值链实际收益等方面,实现美国对中国的相对获益,拉大两国实力差距,维护美国现有国际地位。中国应在做好应对长期贸易摩擦准备的前提下,通过提升自身获益、削弱美国利得和获取第三方市场支持等手段,减少美国实现对华相对获益的可能,破解其基于相对获益持续实施的贸易摩擦。

Since 2018,the United States has imposed many advanced technology import restrictions on the high-tech industries proposed in'Made in China 2025.'This paper uses the two-stage game decision-making model based on absolute benefit and relative gains to analyze the decision-making basis for the implementation of advanced technology import restrictions in the United States.The U.S.hopes that by restricting China’s high-tech imports,the United States will achieve relative benefits to China in terms of political security,economy,technological innovation competition and actual benefits in global value chains,so as to widen the gap between the United States and China,and maintain the status of the United States.China should be prepared for long-term trade frictions to reduce United States relative gains by improving its own gains,weakening U.S.profits and exploring third-party market cooperation.