基于突变理论的滑坡危险性评价

Evaluation of landslide susceptibility degree based on catastrophe theory

滑坡危险性评价与预测是滑坡灾害防治中的首要任务,科学合理地评价滑坡危险性十分重要。以岩桑树水电站库区发育的潜在滑坡为例,据其特有的地质环境条件,选取坡体风化程度、斜坡坡度等9个影响因素作为滑坡危险性评价的指标,并建立分级标准将滑坡危险性分为轻度危险、中度危险、重度危险和极度危险4个等级。将突变理论运用到滑坡危险性评价中,从而建立了新的稳定性评判模型。基于突变级数法的滑坡危险性评价方法,综合考虑了各评价指标间的相关性,真实地描绘了滑坡系统的内在机制。实例分析结果表明,该方法评判结果准确率高,可为滑坡的防治提供依据。

Evaluation and prediction of landslide susceptibility degree are the primary task of landslide disaster prevention. Therefore,evaluation of landslide susceptibility degree is very important in a scientific and reasonable method. According to the special geological conditions of the dam site of Yansangshu hydropower station, the nine influencing factors are selected, including weathering degree, slope and so on. And then landslide susceptibility classification standards are established; the landslide susceptibility rank is divided into mild, moderate, severe and extremely severe. Catastrophe theory is used to evaluate the landslide susceptibility degree; and a new comprehensive evaluation model of landslide susceptibility is proposed. Landslide susceptibility degree evaluation method based on catastrophe theory considers the correlation between every evaluation index; in which the internal mechanism of landslide system is described truly. The results of cases studies show that this proposed method has higher accuracy and good application to landslide prevention.