基于时空扫描软件的日照市2013～2017年肾综合征出血热时空分析

Spatial-temporal scan(SaTScan) analysis on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,Rizhao city,2013-2017

目的利用时空扫描软件探测日照市2013～2017年肾综合征出血热(HFRS)的时间聚集和空间聚集区,为实施精准防控措施提供科学依据。方法整理日照市2013～2017年HFRS疫情数据和地理数据,运用SPSS 19.0进行统计分析,时空扫描软件(SaTScan)V9.5软件进行时空扫描。结果 2013～2017年日照市共报告HFRS病例598例,平均发病率为4.08/10万,死亡1例。职业以农民为主占91.47%(547/598),男性发病436例,占72.91%;女性发病162例,占27.09%。年龄以40～70岁居多,占71.57%。通过时间扫描,获得聚集时间为2013年9～12月;通过空间扫描获得一类聚集区1处(P<0.01)。二类聚集区2处(P<0.01)。结论日照市HFRS疫情处于平稳状态,但居于全省高位,聚集区域主要集中在中部丘陵地带,存在暴发风险。

Objective To explore the clustering in time and space of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS) by using SaTScan software in Rizhao city,2013-2017,so as to provide scientific basis for taking accurate prevention and control measures. Methods Data were collected on HFRS epidemics and geography in Rizhao city.Using SPSS 19.0 to analyze the data,and SaTScan V9.5 software for time-space scan. Results A total of 598 HFRS cases were reported in Rizhao city during 2013-2017,the average incidence was 4.08/10~5,and 1 death.Most cases were farmers,accounting for 91.47%(547/598).There were 436 male cases were,accounting for 72.91%,and 162 cases were females,accounting for 27.09%.Most cases were those aged 40-70 years old,accounting for 71.57%.The pure time scan cluster was in.September December,2013.The pure spatial scan detected 1 primary cluster area(P<0.01),and 2 secondary cluster areas(P<0.01). Conclusion The epidemics of HFRS are relatively stable in Rizhao city during 2013-2017,but the reported incidence is at a high level in Shandong province.The cluster of HFRS is in the central hilly area,with risk of outbreaks.