沪陕传染病防控体系中长期目标可落实程度研究

Study on the implementation degree of medium and long term goals in the infectious disease prevention and control system,Shanghai city and Shaanxi province

目的了解沪陕两地传染病相关政策中长期目标可落实程度的变化趋势,分析其与甲乙类传染病报告发病率(简称传染病发病率)的相关性。方法通过官方公开渠道收集2000～2017年上海市和陕西省两地传染病领域相关政策文件,从中提取并计算战略目标可落实程度,运用Spearman相关、线性回归等分析中长期目标可落实程度与传染病发病率之间的关系。结果 2000～2017年中长期目标可落实程度上海较陕西偏高,两地总体呈现逐年上升趋势;相关与回归分析结果显示,沪陕中长期目标可落实程度对传染病报告发病率的影响均呈显著负相关(P<0.05),上海市相关系数和决定系数分别为-0.83(P<0.01)和0.74(P<0.01),陕西省相关系数和决定系数分别为-0.67(P<0.01)和0.25(P<0.05)。结论沪陕两地中长期目标可落实程度有所改善,但两地可落实程度仍有提升空间;中长期目标可落实程度与传染病发病率呈显著负相关关系,前者推动后者的改善。

Objective To understand the trend of the implementation of the medium and long-term goals of infectious diseases related policies in Shanghai and Shaanxi,and analyze the correlation between the trend and reported incidence of infectious diseases of Class A and B(abbreviated as infectious diseases).Methods Through the official ways,relevant policy documents in the field of infectious diseases in Shanghai and Shaanxi during 2000-2017 was collected,the degree of implementation of strategic objectives was extracted and calculated,and Spearman correlation and linear regression was used to analyze the relationship between the degree of implementation and infection of medium and long-term goals.Results ShaanxiThe implementation of medium and long-term goals in 2000-2017 was higher in Shanghai than in Shaanxi.The overall situation of the two places increased year by year.The impact of the implementation of the medium and long-term goals of Shanghai and Shaanxi on the reported incidence of infectious diseases was significantly negatively correlated(P<0.05).The correlation coefficient and coefficient of determination in Shanghai was-0.83(P<0.01)and 0.74(P<0.01)respectively,and in Shaanxi province it was-0.67(P<0.01)and 0.25(P<0.05)respectively.Conclusion The implementation of medium and long-term goals in Shanghai and Shaanxi has improved,but there is still room for improvement in the two places.There is a significant negative correlation between the degree of implementation of the medium and long-term goals and the incidence of infectious diseases,and the former promotes the improvement of the latter.