2015～2017沈阳市流感样病例与气象因素相关性分析

Analysis on correlation between influenza-like illness and meteorological factors,Shenyang city,2015-2017

目的探讨流感样病例(ILI)与气象因素相关性,为预防控制措施提供科学依据。方法通过沈阳市流感样病例监测网络收集流感样病例数据,对沈阳市2015~2017年ILI和流感病例就诊比例(ILI%)时间分布进行描述性流行病学分析,并对每周ILI、ILI%和每周气象因素作Pearson相关分析。结果沈阳市2015~2017年共报告ILI290 065例,ILI%为3.00%,ILI以5岁以下儿童为主,占51.06%。全年各月均有病例发生,2~10月ILI和ILI%相对稳定,从每年的11或12月开始升高至次年1月。ILI与蒸发量(r=-0.28,P<0.01)、地温(r=-0.35,P<0.01)、气温(r=-0.36,P<0.01)呈负相关,与气压(r=0.29,P<0.01)呈正相关。ILI%与蒸发(r=-0.34,P<0.01)、地温(r=-0.37,P<0.01)、气温(r=-0.40,P<0.01)呈负相关,与气压(r=0.32,P<0.01)呈正相关。结论沈阳市ILI与气象因素存在相关性,在制定预防控制措施时应综合考虑气象因素的影响。

Objective To explore the correlation between influenza-like illness(ILI)and meteorological factors,so as to provide scientific basis for developing the prevention and control measures.Methods Data of influenza-like cases was collected through Shenyang influenza-like case monitoring network.Excel 2010 was used to describe the time distribution of ILI and ILI%and Pearson correlation analysis was used for weekly ILI,ILI%and weekly meteorological factors in Shenyang city during 2015-2017.Results During 2015-2017,a total of 290 065 ILI were reported in Shenyang city,with an ILI%of 3.0%.ILI was mainly among children under 5 years old,accounting for 51.1%.Cases occurred every month throughout the year,and ILI and ILI%were relatively stable during February-October,rising from November or December of each year to next January.ILI was negatively correlated with evaporation(r=-0.28,P<0.01),ground temperature(r=-0.35,P<0.01),temperature(r=-0.36,P<0.01),and barometric pressure(r=0.29,P<0.01)was positively correlated.ILI%was negatively correlated with evaporation(r=-0.34,P<0.01),ground temperature(r=-0.37,P<0.01),temperature(r=-0.40,P<0.01),and barometric pressure(r=0.32,P<0.01)was positively correlated.Conclusion There is a certain correlation between meteorology and influenza.The influence of meteorological factors should be taken into account in the formulation of preventive and control measures.