中国铁矿石进口:时代变迁?

China's iron ore imports: changing times?

经历了过去几年的快速增长后,2018年中国铁矿石进口量增速停滞,一定程度上反映了中国钢铁行业结构正在发生变化。在过去20年里,中国已在全球铁矿石贸易中占据着主导地位,其铁矿石海运进口量在全球铁矿石海运进口量中的份额从1998年的12%提高到2017年的72%。然而,经历了过去几年的快速增长后,2018年中国铁矿石进口量增速停滞,一定程度上反映了中国钢铁行业结构正在发生变化。

Over the past two decades, China has come to dominate global iron ore trade, with the country’s share of global seaborne iron ore imports rising from 12% in 1998 to 72% last year. However, after rapid expansion in previous years, growth in Chinese iron ore imports has stalled in 2018, with weaker trends reflecting shifting patterns in the country’s vast steel industry. The base projection for 2019 suggests that China’s iron ore imports could be in for another steady year, before potentially softening further ahead, but policy developments, scrap price dynamics and steel output trends will remain key variables.