从TPP到CPTPP 一个简要的评估

From TPP to CPTPP: a brief assessment

与美国退出之前的TTP相比,CPTPP在总体经济规模、国际投资、贸易规模等方面都有较大幅度的缩水,从而降低了其对世界经济和我国经济的影响。2017年1 1月,亚太经合组织(Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation,APEC)第25次领导人非正式会议在越南岘港召开,在美国退出TPP的背景下以日本为主导的11个原TPP成员国共同发表联合声明,宣布'已就新协议达成了基础性共识'。

In November 2017,the 25 th APEC leaders’informal meeting was held in Vietnam.Under the background of the exit of the TPP of the United States,the 11 former TPP members dominated by Japan jointly issued a joint statement,announcing'having reached a basic consensus'according to the new deal,and determining the TPP renamed CPTPP,namely'comprehensive and progress the trans-pacific partnership agreement',intending to promote and build a TPP without U.S.participation,which also established a new direction for the development of the TPP.In the current round of global trade system reconstruction,China is facing external pressure from developed economies.At the same time,under the background of the new normal,China’s economic development is also facing its own reform pressure.Compared with the TTP before the withdrawal of the United States,CPTPP has shrunk substantially in terms of overall economic scale,international investment and trade scale,thus reducing its impact on the world economy and China’s economy.Both TPP and CPTPP have a negative impact on China’s economy,but relatively speaking,from TPP to CPTPP,the withdrawal of the United States will largely mitigate the negative impact and impact of TPP on China.In addition,China’s participation in RCEP can offset the adverse impact of TPP/CPTPP to some extent.The positive impact of China’s accession to RCEP is far greater than the negative impact of its nonaccession to CPTPP.