摘要
克拉克森最新发布的《航运市场回顾与展望—2019年春季》报告主要分析了过去六个月航运市场的变化。市场周期变化、经济下行风险、更为可控的运力供给、航运金融格局改变以及IMO2020硫排放新规对市场的影响……这些都值得我们密切关注。
This month, instead of our usual China feature, we summarise the wider shipping markets, taken from our upcoming Shipping Review & Outlook. From the varying market cycle positions, to economic headwinds, 'manageable' supply growth heading towards a 2 bn dwt fleet, changing financial landscape and increasing evidence around positive impacts of IMO 2020, there is certainly plenty to review. Our overall earnings index, the ClarkSea, has continued to make progress, up 13% across2018(moving above trend since the financial crisis) and a further 9% in the year to mid March, despite some new year 'jitters'. After a good winter, the gloom of the worst tanker market for 25 years has been replaced by an improved outlook. While making gains in 2018(earnings up 11%), bulkers have started 2019 under pressure and containership charter rates have softened in the past six months, although improvements in the bigger sizes are now filtering through. LPG saw some improvement(up 6% in 2018) and LNG was the star performer, with spot rates(albeit impacting c.25% of the fleet) peaking at $190,000/day before easing back in early 2019. Ro-Ro, ferry and cruise markets remain solid. The offshore sector is seeing more activity but pick up in rates and utilisation is gradual. Overall, there is evidence of further market recalibration, with supply looking manageable and potential for IMO 2020 ‘wildcards’ to have a positive impact. Broader economic headwinds are impacting sentiment however, suggesting demand side risks should be monitored very closely.
出处
《中国远洋海运》
2019年第5期62-62,11,共2页
Maritime China
