湖南新型城镇化水平与房地产价格互动的实证分析

Empirical Study on the Interaction of New Type Urbanization and Real Estate Price in Hunan Province

新型城镇化的推进通过房地产需求和供给的作用影响房地产价格,由此引起的房地产市场主体的反馈也会影响新型城镇化进程。利用协整理论、格兰杰因果检验理论对湖南省新型城镇化水平和房地产价格的互动关系进行实证分析,研究结果表明:新型城镇化水平和房地产价格之间存在正向的长期均衡关系;在滞后1期,新型城镇化水平是房地产价格的Granger原因,但是房地产价格不是新型城镇化水平的Granger.原因;在滞后2期,新型城镇化水平和房地产价格互为Granger原因。

In the process of new type urbanization the real estate price is affected by its demand and supply,so the feedback from real estate agent will affect the urbanization.Using co-integration theory and Granger causality test,this paper proceeds the empirical study on the interaction relations between new type urbanization rate and real estate price in Hunan Province and the results show that:the urbanization rate and real estate prices are of positive long-term equilibrium relations;for lagging one phase,the urbanization rate is the Granger cause of real estate price,while real estate price is not the Granger cause of new type urbanization rate;for lagging two phases,both of them are the other's Granger cause.