基于长视距回归模型的住房价格与租金关系研究——以北京市为例

Empirical Study on the Interaction Between Rents and House Price——take Beijing as an example

利用2008年1月至2014年8月北京市住房租赁价格指数、新建住宅销售价格指数和二手住宅销售价格指数月度数据,从房价与房租的动态关系入手构建误差修正模型。以租价比为切入点,通过建立租金、房价联立的长视距回归模型,分别测度当期租价比对未来半年至两年内房价、租金走势的预测能力。实证结果显示北京市住宅租赁价格与销售价格(新建、二手)之间存在长期均衡关系,但短期内互动机制缺失:二手住宅销售价格受租金水平和新建住宅销售价格的影响显著,租金短期内仅受新建住宅销售价格影响,而短期内租金和二手住宅销售价格对新建住宅销售价格的影响几乎可以忽略不计。基于实证研究所揭示的这一结果,建议完善住房市场供给结构,健全房地产价格统计体系,建立住房市场长效调控机制。

This article constructs error-correction model in order to analyzing dynamic relationship between real estate price and rents,in which based on the housing rental index and sale prices index from 1Q2008 to 4Q2014 in Beijing.Also,we build a long-run horizon regression model,taking rent-price ratio's prediction as an entry point,to measure the prediction of rent-price ratio for rents and house price in the next three years.Empirical research indicates that there exists long-run equilibrium relationship between house price and rents in Beijing,but the short-term interactive mechanism relatively missing.The price of second-hand housing is effected significantly by the rents and the new-housing price,rents is effected by the new-housing price,and in the short-time the effects of rents and the second-hand housing price to the new-housing price is almost negligible.At last,we put forward some relevant suggestions to stimulating the coordinated development of real estate sale as well as rental market,which on the base of empirical outcome.