福建山区配电网负荷预测方法探讨

Discussion on Load Forecasting Method for Distribution Network in Fujian Mountains

配电网负荷预测方法有很多种。考虑到山区配电网负荷的特殊性,本文针对福建山区配电网负荷特点,以该省明溪县电网为例,探讨自然增长和重点用户叠加法、线性回归模型及GM(1,1)等负荷预测方法的优劣性,并根据预测结果提出负荷预测方案,以期对明溪县地方配电网规划提供技术参考。

There are many kinds of load forecasting methods for distribution network. Considering the particularity of the distribution network load in Fujian mountainous area, in accordance with feature of electrical network of Ming Xi county, advantage and disadvantage of the load forecast method of the nature growth and the key user superposition method, the linear return model and GM( 1,1) are discussed in this thesis, the scheme is raised to provide technical reference for planning the local distribution network in Mingxi county according to the forecast results.