流感传播的影响因素

Influencing factors of influenza transmission

以广东某地2015年4月至9月流感实际病例数据为例,通过易感者-感染者(susceptible-infected, SI)传染病模型以及改进的易感者-感染者-环境中病毒数(susceptible-infected-the number of viruses in the environment, SIV)传染病模型,考察环境中病毒数和温度等因素对流感传播的影响,并利用最小二乘法拟合得出相关参数.结果表明:流感传播与环境中病毒数、温度等因素有关,且此次广东地区流感传播的最适温度约为24.9℃.

Taking the actual cases infected by influenza in some places in Guangdong from April to September in 2015 as an example,the susceptible-infected(SI)infectious disease model and the improved susceptible-infected-the number of viruses in the environment(SIV)model are used to investigate the impacts of factors such as the number of viruses in the environment and temperature on the spreading of influenza.The relevant parameters are given by the least squares method.The results show that the spreading of influenza is related to the number of viruses in the environment and temperature,and the optimum temperature for the transmission of the influenza in Guangdong is about 24.9℃.