集约化农区近50年耕地数量变化驱动机制分析——以河北省曲周县为例

The progress and driving forces of change in arable land in intensive agricultural region during the past 50 years-A case study of Quzhou county in Hebei Province

根据曲周县历年耕地数量变化统计数据和1986年土地利用现状以及1986～2000年土地利用变更调查数据进行分析表明,曲周县耕地面积经历了增加→急剧减少→缓慢减少→快速上升→相对稳定的变化过程。1949～1957年为耕地增加期,全县年平均递增率达到0.43%;1958～1961年为耕地急剧减少期,年均递减1.55%;1962～1974年为耕地缓慢减少期,年均递减0.47%;1975～1985年为耕地数量快速增加期,年均递增0.63%;1986～1999年为耕地数量相对稳定的阶段,耕地年均递减0.026%。人口变化、自然因素变化、技术进步、区域经济发展和政策演变共同组成了耕地数量变化的驱动力系统。人口增加对粮食和住宅用地的需要为耕地数量的增加提供了最根本的需求;气候因素的变化为大量盐渍土的改良提供了基础,而只有技术进步才能使大量盐渍土变为耕地;以第一产业为主的经济结构组成,使耕地比重占据了土地利用结构中的主导地位;而国家政策的阶段性变化,促使耕地数量发生了相应变化。

Human being survival and development base on the quantitative a ra ble land.Land use and land cover change (LUCC)has become one of the eight c ore fields among the global environmental change,which was affected by both nat ural factor and the socio-economic factor.With rapid economic development and heavy population press ure,China will lose a lot of arable land in the future.The research into the a rable land change and its driving force has been discussed in recently published papers.But the arable land change and its driving force in the intensive agri cultural region has not been reported.It is helpful to safeguard the food secu rity by analysing the arable land change and its driving forces.Quzhou county i s an intensive agricultural region in China,so it has been identified as the op timal study area for this purpose.Arable land change and socio-economic data were obtained from1949to1999from the county statistics bureau and land resource bureau,hence data of the arable land change of this p eriod was taken into account in the present study.The analysis presented in t his paper shows that the change of arable land experienced such phases as incre ase,dramatic decrease,slow decrease,rapid increase and relative stagnancy.Th e annual increase rate is0.43%from1949to1957,the annual decrease r ate is1.55%and0.47%respectively from1957to1961and from1961 to1974,the annual increase rate is0.63%from1974to1985and the a nnual decrease rate is0.02%from1985to1999.The arable land change w as driven by such factors as population change,climate change,technique change ,regional economic and policy change.The factors meationed above form a non li near and multi-feedback way system which drives the arable land change all the way through .Among which,the increase of population requires much more arable land immedia tely;the climate change is the basis for ameliorating saline-alkali land into arable land,but only with technical progress,can the saline be transformed in to arable land,the stable economic structure leads to the stablility of arable land which loses the chance to be converted into built-up land,at the same ti me,the government enacts relevant policies to change the quantity of arable l and responsive to land use.