NSTEC土地利用格局的人口密度变化驱动力研究

Study on population density driving force of land use change in north-south transect of eastern China

基于中国东部南北样带(NSTEC)20世纪50年代以来5个时期的县域人口数据,筛选出人口密度每平方公里5、10、50、100、200、400和800人等特征值,编制了5期人口密度图,分析了区域人口密度时空变化及其对土地利用变化的驱动关系。相关和回归分析表明:人口密度与耕地比例、城镇用地比例、牧草地比例、林地比例显著相关;不同时期的人口密度可以近似反演相应时期的耕地比例和格局,为人口驱动力的定量研究提供借鉴。

To reflect the population distribution directly in north-south tr ansect of eastern China(NSTEC),five periods of population density maps coveri n g1953,1964,1982,1990and1997are compiled based on seven eigenvalues of5,10,50,100,200,400and800persons per km 2 .According to the analysis of the maps,we can see that the higher the den sity is,the faster the growth rate.Furthermore,correlation and regression ana lysis shows that density is related with plough and urban land use positively, with grassland and forest negatively,and the regression equation between densit y and land use is thus built.So,the regression equation between plough and for est can be also built to inverse LUCC in past times.The analysis of pattern cha nges of population density,which is regarded as an important driving force of land use and cover change in NSTEC,shows the force of population density to LU CC.The development of population density eigenvalues varies among several regi ons.The study of this paper shows the correlation to certain extent between l and use structure and contemporary population.Through the regression equation i n this paper,contemporary land use structure can be mapped based on population density.However,besides population density,there are many other forces acting on land use change,such as city development,technology,education and so on.