集群行为视域下足球球迷暴力行为的预测研究

Research on Football Fans Violence Prediction from the Perspective of Group Behavior Theory

针对日益频发的足球赛场球迷暴力现象,从集群行为视角对足球球迷暴力的发生进行预测性分析,以期引导球迷更加理性的行为;通过对158名足球球迷的问卷调查,对裁判、客队球员和球迷以及多重因素4个情境下球迷暴力行为的预测因素进行回归分析;结果显示4个情景下,球迷集体身份认同等4个因素对球迷暴力行为意愿具有显著预测效应,特别是对温和型暴力行为的预测;当多重因素集中发生时,激烈型暴力行为出现的几率开始增大,体现了球迷集群暴力行为的动态性特征。

According to more and more frequent violence in football match places,prediction and analysis are conducted on football fans violence from group behavior perspective in order to guide the fans to be more rational.By the questionnaires from 158 football fans on referees,visiting team and fans,regression analysis is conducted on prediction factors of the fans violence behaviors under four situations. The results show that under four situations,four factors such as collective identity identification and so on have significant prediction effect on the fans violence behaviors,especially for soft violence behavior prediction. When multiple factors put together,the frequency for serious violence behaviors begins to increase,which embodies the dynamic feature of group violence behaviors of the fans.