基于用地仿真法的配电系统空间负荷预测

Land usage-based spatial load forecasting in distribution system

配电系统空间负荷预测与传统的电力负荷预测不同之处是它不仅基于时间坐标,而且基于空间坐标。受单元自动机CA(CellularAutomata)在土地利用变化中的应用启发,对基于用地仿真的配电系统空间负荷预测过程进行了改进,可以给出不同目标下的综合预测结果,并将空间信息和预测结果以矩阵形式表达,使整个过程简单明了。对应用原理和过程进行了详细阐述,利用一个实际空间负荷预测的小区用地分析实例说明所提方法的应用过程。

Compared with traditional distribution load forecasting techniques,spatial load forecasting is based on not only temporal coordinates,but also spatial coordinates.Under the illumination of the application of cellular automata in land usage,a method to ameliorate spatial load forecasting is introduced.It offers the result considering different objects and expresses the spatial information and result in matrix,making the whole course explicit.The theory and the procedures detailed with an example.