我国利率政策调控效果的实证检验及其作用机制

The Positive Test of the Effect of Our Country's Interest Rate Policy Control and Adjustment and the Functional Mechanism

我国连续降低利率的政策对分流储蓄、刺激需求的作用并不明显,主要由于我国居民收入增长预期不稳定,支出预期较大,可供选择的金融资产比较单一,消费升级遇到障碍,存在偏高的储蓄倾向;贷款主要流向国有企业,银行对国有企业的约束软化,国企负债倾向高企,但银行内部制约加强,贷款责任加大,二者平衡的结果决定了贷款规模。降息刺激投资的作用难以发挥,其作用机制与凯恩斯的"流动性陷阱"完全不同。建议加大存贷利差,创新金融产品,改善信用环境。

Our country's consecutive policy of declining interest rate didn't play an evident role in decentralizing the savings and stimulating demands. The reasons are as follows: the residential income expectancy in our country is unsteady, and their expenditure expectancy is high, whereas the optional financial product is rare, the higher grade consumption is hindered, so residents prefer to save money; The loans mainly plunges into the state-owned enterprises, the bank's restriction to the state-owned enterprises is weak, so the state-owned enterprises are prone to get higher debt. Meanwhile the inner control of the bank is being strengthened and the credit responsibility has become serious. The result of the balance of the above-mentioned two parties decides the loan scale. The means of stimulating investment by reducing the interest rate doesn't work, the function isn't the same as Keynes' 'Trap of Liquidity'. Therefore the author suggests that the margin between deposit and loan be enlarged, the financial product be innovated and the credit environment be improved.