D-S理论中证据损耗分析及改进方法

Evidence Ullage Analysis in D-S Theory and Development

分析了传统D-S理论在证据组合过程中的误差、抗干扰能力弱以及与人类思维相悖的原因;认为主要是由于部分定义和规则的局限性引发了组合过程中的证据损耗;提出了一种扩展的定义和组合规则,发现并解决了完全兼容证据组合过程中的证据损耗,有效地化解了冲突;理论分析和实验结果支持了方法的合理性与可行性.

It is found that there are errors in D-S combination rules even though the evidences are unconflict. The error, unanti-jamming and opposition during the evidence combination in traditional D-S theory are studied. An effort has been made to prove that the evidence ullage is caused by ill-suited definitions and ill-suited rules in the combination process. In this paper, new generic definitions and combination rules are also proposed. The evidence ullage in the compatible evidence combination process in terms of the definitions and rules is found and then solved. The experimental results show that the methodology developed here can not only solve the conflicts efficiently, but also produce reasonable results.