贸易结构优化三阶段论及我国所处阶段的实证检验

The Three-Phases Theory of Trade Structure Optimization and Its Positive Test

贸易商品结构优化包涵静态贸易结构优化理论和动态贸易结构优化理论。国际贸易理论的发展就是对三个基本问题:国际贸易的动因、国际贸易的结构和国际贸易的利益作出合理的解释。其中,贸易动因是决定其它两个问题最为根本的因素。利用Balassa提出的“显性比较优势”作为检验指标,对我国现有贸易动力进行实证检验,得出我国贸易结构正处于第一阶段向第二阶段过渡的结论。

Approached from the methodology of historical empiricism, the paper first defines the concept of trade structure optimization, then it expatiates the theories of international trade by classifying it into three dynamically correlated phases of structure optimization and formulating specific trade patterns respectively. Finally, the present impetus of trade in China is tested in terms of the overt Comparative Advantage Index advanced by Balassa, and it is concluded that the trade structure in China is transferring from the first phase to the second one.