我国康复治疗技术岗位需求预测研究

A manpower need prediction to rehabilitation therapists in China

进行我国康复治疗技术岗位需求的预测,为制定康复治疗技术人才的培养规划提供依据。方法:①采用文献检索法了解我们与国外康复治疗人员配置的差距。②用动态数列法和趋势分析法计算我国2005年和2010年的床位数,采用床位数/康复治疗师比值法,预测2005年和2010年所需的康复治疗师人数。③专家咨询法:选取全国康复医学专家52名,收集各医院康复医学科康复治疗师目前的人数和2005年、2010年治疗师配置情况的预测。据此计算2005年和2010年所需的康复治疗师人数;另参考广东省康复医学专家对未来10年我国各级医院康复治疗师配置和需求总量提出的预测意见。结果:①我国康复治疗师总数现在约为0.4/10万人口,北京市二级医院康复医学科康复治疗师存在较大人员缺口,社区康复治疗师配置尤为薄弱。②2005年需要康复治疗师43700—47000名,2010年需要康复治疗师68910-74000名;③广东部分专家的预测:2005年和2010年全国需要的康复治疗师人数为约1.5万人和3.5万人。结论:2005年我国需要康复治疗师的保守估计是1.5万人,乐观估计是4.5万人。2010年我国需要康复治疗师的人数保守估计是3.5万人,乐观估计是6.9万人。2005年PT∶OT=2.51∶1,2010年PT∶OT=2.48∶1。

Objective:To predict the manpower demand of rehabilitation therapists in our country,so as to provide basis for making training plan in whole country.Method:①The literatures were reviewed to investigate the gap of rehabilitation therapists in number between our country and other countries in the world.②The sum total of hospital beds in China in2005and2010was calculated by two mathematic methods to predict the total demand of rehabilitation therapists in2005and in2010using the specific value method of beds/rehabilitation therapists.③Experts consulting:the questionnaires were sent to52experts of rehabilitation departments in hospitals throughout the country to investigate the current situation and future prediction of manpower needs of rehabilitation therapists in their departments to forecast the demand in China in2005and in2010.30rehabilitation experts in Guangdong were consulted to predict the needs in10years.Result:①A low ratio of0.4rehabilitation therapist/100000population in China now was resulted.There was a large shortage of rehabilitation therapists in grade II hospitals in average in Beijing.②The total amount of rehabilitation therapists needed in2005was43700-45700,in2010was68900-74000in China.③Predictions of experts from Guangdong province as to the manpower need of rehabilitation therapists were15000(2005)and35000(2010).Conclusion:It is predicted that the total demand of rehabilitation therapists is15000-45000in2005and35000-69000in2010in China.The ratio of physiotherapists to occupational therapists is2.51∶1in2005and2.48∶1in2010.