鲜水河断裂带断层间相互作用的触震与缓震效应

EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERING AND DELAYING CAUSED BY FAULT INTERACTION ON XIANSHUIHE FAULT BELT,SOUTHWESTERN CHINA

探讨了断层间相互作用产生的同震库仑应力改变及对地震的触发与延缓效应,并以鲜水河断裂带不同断裂段时间上连续发生的4次M_s6.0以上地震为例,计算和分析了每次地震发生后,在周围其它断裂上产生的同震库仑应力改变及其对后续地震的触发,以及1973年炉霍M_s7.6地震和1981年道孚M_s6.9地震发生后,在其周围最易破坏失稳的微破裂上产生的同震库仑应力改变及对余震活动的影响。在其它条件保持不变的情况下,将这4次地震的累积触震与缓震效应加以定量考虑,对鲜水河断裂带各断裂段的地震潜势进行了重新计算,并与已有预测结果进行对比分析,检验和评估了鲜水河断裂带断层间相互作用触震与缓震效应的重要性。结果表明:鲜水河断裂带每次地震都发生于受其先前发生的地震影响而产生同震库仑应力增加的断裂段上,不同断层间相互作用的触震和缓震效应导致地震复发概率的改变可高达30.5％以上,主震后的余震大多发生于同震库仑应力增加较高的微破裂上。

The coseismic Coulomb stress change caused by fault interaction and its influences on the triggering and delaying of earthquake are briefly discussed. The Xianshuihe fault belt consists of Luhuo, Daofu, Kangding, Qianning and Ganzi fault. Luohuo (Ms = 7.6, 1973) -Kangding (Ms = 6. 2, 1975)-Daofu (Ms = 6. 9, 1981)-Ganzi (Ms = 6. 0, 1982) earthquake is a seismic sequence continuous on the time axis with magnitude greater than 6.0. They occurred on the Luhuo, Kangding, Daofu and Ganzi fault, respectively. The coseismic Coulomb stress changes caused by each earthquake on its surrounding major faults and microcracks are calculated, and their effects on the triggering and delaying of the next earthquake and aftershocks are analyzed. It is shown that each earthquake of the sequence occurred on the fault segment with coseismic Coulomb stress increases caused by its predecessors, and most aftershocks are distributed along the microcracks with relatively larger coseismic Coulomb stress increases resulted from the main shock. With the fault interaction considered, the seismic potential of each segment along Xianshuihe fault belt is reassessed, and contrasted with those predicted results ignoring coseismic Coulomb stress change, the significance of fault interaction and its effect on triggering and delaying of earthquake are emphasized. It is concluded that fault interaction plays a very important role on seismic potential of Xianshuihe fault belt, and the maximal change of future earthquake probability on fault segment is up to 30. 5%.