马铃薯产量的风险评估及区划研究

Risk Evaluation and Compartment Study of Potato Yields

以马铃薯主产区乌兰察布盟地区为例 ,从 196 1～ 2 0 0 0年马铃薯单产波动的相对值着手 ,以历年减产率指标、减产率变异系数指标、减产率概率指标和综合风险指数指标等为评估标准 ,结合小网格资源推算的方法 ,分析了乌兰察布盟地区马铃薯单产的风险分布规律。根据气候相似性原理 ,利用最优动态聚类方法 ,给出马铃薯种植的风险区划。同时对影响马铃薯产量波动的风险成因进行分析 ,指出春、夏季干旱及全年干旱。

Taking Wulanchabumeng as an example, on the basis of the relative variation of per unit area potato yields from 1961 to 2000, using such indexes as the yield reduction rate, the yield reduction rate variation coefficient, the yield reduction rate probability and synoptic risk as evaluation stands, the risk distribution regularity of per unit area potato yields in Wulanchabumeng is analyzed by means of the small grid resource deduction method. According to the climate similarity theory, using the optimal dynamic cluster method, the risk compartment of potato plating is given. At the same time, factors that affect the potato yields are also analyzed. Results show that droughts either in spring, summer or all the year round, as well as big precipitation variations, are main reasons that cause potato yield fluctuation in the area.