农业气象作物产量预报的特点与思考

Special Aspects of Agrometeorological Crop Yields Forecast and Discus sion

文章回顾了农业气象作物产量预报的发展历程 ,阐述了其业务支持体系和具有的信息丰富、传送及时、预报技术综合、业务规范的特点。深入分析了当前业务中存在的大范围作物面积难以估测、产量预报模型有待机理化和动态化以及产量预报应面向全球化等问题。从目前面临的机遇与挑战出发 ,提出了气象部门应充分发挥自身的资源优势 ,解决存在的难题 。

The history of agrometeorological crop yields forecast i s reviewed, an d the operational technical support system is described. Discussion is conducted on some problems encountered at present in operation: it is difficult to make n ationwide crop yields forecast; crop production forecast models should be mechan ism-based and dynamic, and crop production forecast should be oriented to the m a in crops in the world. The opportunity and challenges that the meteorological se rvice of China is confronted presently and the corresponding solutions are discu ssed.