河北省11个地级市极端气温的分析和预报

Analysis and Forecast of Extreme Temperature in 11 Cities of Hebei Province

通过对影响河北省 11个地级市极端气温的诸因素进行详尽的分析 ,综合经验预报、数值预报等优点 ,采用逐步回归方法 ,建立了河北省 11个城市的极端气温预报方程。试用结果表明 :该方法温度客观预报评分达到 80分 ,特别是在春秋季节和转折、突变的天气情况下 ,变温幅度较大时 。

Through analyzing the factors affecting the extreme temp eratures of 11 cit ies in Hebei Province and integrating the merits of experiential forecast and nu merical forecast, the forecasting equations of extreme temperatures of these 11 cities are established by using the successive regression method. The results sh ow that this method can score 80 in temperature objective forecasting, and even more effective when the amplitude of temperature change is larger during spring and fall, as well as in transitional and break weather conditions.