京、沪两地脑卒中发病率及其预测模型

Comparison of Cerebral Haemorrhage Incidence and Their Predicting Models in Beijing and Shanghai

通过分析比较北京、上海两地脑卒中病例资料和气象资料 ,揭示两地脑卒中发病率的总体水平、季节变化特点和多年变化趋势。在综合考虑该病症发病率自身演变规律及气象因子可能施加影响的基础上设计的短期气候预测模型 ,不但能较好地拟合发病率的实况 ,而且对未来时段的发病率具有一定的预测能力 ,但在预报精度上 。

By contrasting the cerebral haemorrhage incidence to meteorological data in Beijing and Shanghai areas, the total levels, seasonal variation features and yearly variation trends of the cerebral haemorrhage incidence are revealed. Considering the evolvement regularities of cerebral haemorrhage incidence and the possible influences of meteorological factors, the short climate predicting models, which possess both good fitting and predictive capabilities, were designed for the two areas. However, the precisions are different between the two models.