福州市呼吸道疾病发生的气象条件分析及预报

Analysis and Forecast of Weather Favorable for Breathing Disease Occurrence in Fuzhou

通过对 1 995～ 2 0 0 1年福州市 5个医院呼吸道疾病 3794 4例住院病例资料和同期气象资料的统计和分析 ,归纳出呼吸道疾病发病特点及其与气象条件的关系 ,并利用最优子集方法 ,分四个季节建立呼吸道疾病逐日发病人数 (等级 )预报方程。呼吸道疾病发病有明显的季节性变化 ,7月是呼吸道疾病的高发期 ,3月是下呼吸道疾病的另一高发期 ,冬季冷空气影响及转折性天气是呼吸道疾病增多的诱因 ,夏季高气温、低气压是呼吸道疾病增多的诱因。

Based on the analysis of 37944 hospitalized breath disease case data of five big hospitals in Fuzhou and weather data at the same time, the relation between characteristics of breathing diseases and weather variation is summed up. By means of the optimized subset method, four forecast equations are established for four seasons. The results show that breathing diseases have obvious seasonal change; generally, July and March are two paroxysmal periods of breathing diseases; in winter, cold air and sudden weather changes are inducements of breathing disease increase, and in summer, high temperature and low atmospheric pressure are inducements of breathing disease increase.