摘要
分析了 1 998和 2 0 0 1年冬季我国北方地区流感大流行期的大气环境特征 ,得出冬季气温偏高 ,冷空气活动次数偏少且降温幅度增大 ;降水比上一年明显偏少且年际变化大、时间分布不均以及大气中烟尘含量高等大气环境特征与流感流行有密切关系。用 1 991～ 2 0 0 1年的流感住院人数 ,气温、降水和能见度为因子 。
Analyses is made of the atmospheric environment variation during the flu rages in 1998 and 2000. The results indicate that such atmospheric environment variation as higher winter air temperature, fewer cold air activities, larger argument of temperature variation, fewer precipitation than previous year along with greater inter annual variation and uneven temporal distribution, and higher atmospheric soot content are related closely to flu occurrence. At the same time, using the 11 year diseases case history information and the multiple regression method, selecting three factors with distinct physical meaning, a prediction equation of flu is established.
出处
《气象科技》
北大核心
2003年第6期389-392,396,共5页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
北京区域气象中心课题资助
