人群死亡率的预测模型与分析

Analysing the Models to Forecast Mortality Rate

运用时间序列分析方法 ,建立了预测人群死亡率数学模型 ,并将该模型预测结果与文献所用数学模型得到的结果进行比较 ,经统计检验表明 :用时间序列分析方法建立的数学模型精度更高 ,计算量也大大减少 ,且无需考虑影响死亡率的各种相关因素 ,无需太多控制参数。

In this article, the authors put forward some models by time series theory to forecast the mortality, and get more accurate results comparing with the reference with less calculation. And the models established in this paper are easy to calculate without many parameters and without considering the factors that affect the mortality.