基于马尔科夫过程的电力企业市场竞争预测

Market percentage prediction based on markov chain in electric powerenterprise competition

在经济预测的方法中,马尔科夫过程预测技术不需要连续不断的历史数据,只需要近期的资料就可以预测未来。许多经济和社会现象中的动态系统问题,都可采用马尔科夫过程来描述。因此,它的应用较为广泛。针对电力企业的自身特点,利用马尔科夫过程建立了市场占有率的马尔科夫过程预测模型,给出了模型的应用,可以为发电企业参与电力市场竞争提供必要的决策依据。

Many dynamic systematic problems in the economic and social phenomenon can be described by Markov chain. According to the characteristics of electric power enterprise, we set up the mathematical patterns in the prediction of market percentage by the Markov chain theory and give the application of the patterns. It can offer the essential reference in making decision for the electric power enterprise to participate in the market competition.