澉浦站年最高潮位序列变异点判别

Variation identification of high tide level in Hangzhou Bay

水文灰色系统分析法通过构造差异信息序列,计算比较序列间信息测度的不同,来判别水文序列时间、空间上的变异点。采用两种水文比较序列构造方法,分析得澉浦站年最高潮位在1973年、1992年之后发生变异。例证表明,采用灰色系统差异信息的度量来判别水文序列的变异点概念明确,方法简单、有效。

This paper adopts differential information theory to identify change points in time series. Key step of variation identification is to build up comparing sequence and two methods are introduced. One is comparing series formed of moving partition step by step; another is comparing series formed of order clustering optimum bi-partition. The two means are applied in analysis change point of annual maximum tidal level series at Ganpu station and get the unanimous result.