海洋生态预报的复杂性与研究方法的讨论

ANALYSIS OF THE COMPLEXITY AND THE RESEARCH METHODS OF THE MARINE ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS PREDICTION

海洋生态动态预报预测研究已经成为海洋科学乃至地球系统科学领域中的热点问题。比较深入地分析了海洋生态预报的复杂性、不确定性和实况监测资料严重不足等问题,为促进海洋生态预报研究的快速发展,借鉴中期数值天气预报的一些有效方法,提出以下建议:①加深理解海洋生态系统的非线性动力学特征,深入开展随机—动力耦合的海洋生态系统模型研究;②加强海洋生态集合(ensemble)预报和综合预报方法研究;③大力促进卫星遥感信息的海洋生态应用研究,加强资料同化研究和反问题研究方法的应用,努力发掘各种信息资料的预报应用。

Dynamic prediction research on marine ecosystem has become one hot issue in marine science and even to geosystem sciences. The complexity and uncertainty of marine ecosystem dynamic prediction and the deficiency of field survey are deeply analysed. Several proposals are presented in this paper, by the aid of some analysis methods of numerical weather prediction, in order to promote the development of marine ecosystem dynamic prediction study: (1) to deeply understand the nonlinear dynamical characteristics of marine ecosystem and to develop stochastic-dynamical model; (2) to strengthen ensemble and synthesized prediction study for marine ecosystem; (3) to make full use of satellitic remote sensing data and pay more attention to data assimilation study and application study of inverse problem for the marine ecosystem dynamics.