南昆铁路某滑坡变形的灰色预测

Grey Prediction on Deformation of the Slide Slope in Nan Kun Railway

根据南昆(南宁—昆明)铁路某滑坡实际情况,运用灰色理论和方法通过模型的建立、模型修正、精度检验过程得出用于预测滑坡变形的GM(1,1)模型,并用该模型对其部分监测点的空间位移进行了预测。预测结果与实测值完全吻合,证明此模型在实际工程中应用是可行的。

This paper introduces the procedure in which the grey theory and method are practically applied to the establishment of GM(1,1) model,revision and precision inspection for the deformation of the slide slope in Nan Kun (Nan NingKun Ming) Railway.The displacement of some observation sites were predicted base on the GM(1,1) model.The accuracy of the predication proves that model can be used in practice. 