斜纹夜蛾核型多角体病毒对宿主幼虫的致死速率与温度关系

RELATION OF LETHAL VELOCITY OF NUCLEAR POLYHEDROSIS VIRUS OF Spodoptera litura TO ITS HOST LARVAE TO THE INCUBATION TEMPERATURE

利用非线性模型描述了斜纹夜蛾幼虫感染核型多角体病毒后的病死速率、病死时间分布与饲育温度的关系。结果表明 ,随着饲育温度的升高 ,感病幼虫病死速率加快。Schoolfield模型、Stinner模型和分段Lo gistic模型均可很好地描述幼虫病死速率与温度的关系。不同饲育温度处理下 ,感病斜纹夜蛾每日病死率可用时间 剂量 死亡率模型较好地拟合 ,模型模拟值与实测值有较好的吻合 (Hosmer Lemoshow统计量检验不显著 ) ,方程中各项系数经t检验达极显著水平 ;不同饲育温度下的幼虫病死时间分布可用Weibull模型、Gompertz模型及Logistic模型很好地拟合 ,通过用决定系数R2 和剩余平方和Q 比较各模型的拟合程度 ,表明在 2 9℃以下 ,以Logistic模型拟合最好 ,Gompertz模型次之 ,Weibull模型稍差。当饲育温度在 3 2℃以上时 ,以Gompertz模型最好 ,Weibull模型和Logistic模型拟合次之。

The relationship between the death velocity and death time distribution of the larvae of Spodoptera litura infected with nuclear polyhedrosis virus and the incubation temperature was described by non-linear models. The results showed that, with incubation temperature increasing, the death velocity of the infected larvae accelerated. The relation of death velocity of infected host larvae to the incubation temperature could be well fitted by such models as Stinner, Schoolfield and Hazard-logistic. The daily mortality probability of virus-infected host larvae incubated at different temperatures could be quite fitted by time-dosage-mortality model. Hosmer-Lemoshow test showed that the predicted values well fitted with observed data, and t-test indicated the parameters of the model reached significant level. The diseased death time distribution of virus-infected host larvae at different incubation temperatures could be well simulated by Weibull, Gompertz and Logistic models. The comparison of fitting degrees by coefficient of determination R 2 and residual sum of square Q showed that below 29℃ Logistic model was the best, Gompertze took second place and Weibull was a bit poor. While the incubation temperature was above 32℃, Gompertz model was the best, followed by Weibull model and Logistic model.