用小世界网络模型研究SARS病毒的传播

Predict SARS infection with the small world network model

用小世界网络模型对非典型肺炎的传染动力学行为做了数值模拟研究。在传染模型中加入了负反馈机制与信息流效应。我们的模拟结果成功地得到了和现实病毒扩散相同的趋势。我们的主要研究结果是 :负反馈机制可以有效地抑制非典型肺炎的蔓延 ,但在某些情况下可能引起感染人数的反复性振荡。另外 。

We report of our numerical simulation of SARS infection dynamics with the small world network model. The negative feedback mechanism and the effect of information flow are added in the model. The simulation fits well with the observed data. The main results of our simulation are that the feedback mechanism can effectively slow down the SARS infecting rate, but it may cause sustained oscillations in number of infection cases. Moreover, keeping the transparency of information is a key factor to resist SARS in the society.