耗散结构理论在区块产量递减预测中的应用

Application of Dissipative Structure Theory to Forecasting Regional Degression of Output

油田产量预测模型很多 ,但不同的模型预测的结果相差很大 ,原因是模型的理论依据—经典力学和量子力学的基本定律 :时间是不变因素。将耗散结构理论引入到油田产量预测中 ,正是充分考虑到油田动态系统是一个与外界不断进行物质和能量的交换、非平衡的、非线性的系统 ,是耗散结构体系。将时间变量作为重要因素引入预测模型中 ,认为油田动态系统是一个时间单方向的、不可逆过程 。

There are many models to forecast the output of oil, but the results are different, for the theoretic bases: basic law of typical mechanics and quantum mechanics: Time is a fixed factor. To introduce dissipative structure theory to forecast the output is due to the consideration that dynamic system of oil field is a non-balanced, non-linear dissipative structure that exchanges substance and energy with outside. To introduce time as variable into forecasting model, it is thought that dynamic system of oil field is a single direction as time, so that a new theoretic base is raised.