爆炸冲击波对目标的毁伤概率算法研究

On Improving Determination of Probability of Blast Kill of Aircraft

针对爆炸冲击波对目标毁伤这一复杂问题进行了合理的简化 ,研究了冲击波对梁结构的弯曲破坏问题。利用一些实验结果 ,估计冲击波对目标的机械破坏作用。在综合考虑战斗部装药质量、爆炸点距目标距离、爆炸高度的环境压力、目标几何尺寸以及目标抗冲击载荷能力等各种随机因素的基础上 ,利用概率论知识 ,提出了一种新的爆炸冲击波对飞机结构毁伤概率的计算方法。算例分析表明 ,此方法能够对目标在爆炸冲击波超压作用下的易损性进行评估 。

In China now, to our best knowledge, the '0-1' probability expression is generally used. When the burst occurs within the blast vulnerability envelope, the probability of kill is one, and when it occurs outside the envelope the probability is zero. In our opinion, the '0-1' probability expression does not give a good evaluation of kill probability. We developed an algorithm for determining a better probability of kill by blast wave. Section 1 explains in some detail our algorithm. Subsection 1.1 simplifies the complex process of blast wave interaction with the aircraft. Subsection 1.2 utilizes some experimental results to estimate the mechanical kill effect of blast wave. Subsection 1.3 studies the destruction of aircraft beam structure by blast wave. Subsection 1.4 discusses how to deal with main stochastic factors: (i) charge weight, (ii) encounter attitude, (iii) blast standoff from the target, (iv) target size, (v) ambient pressure at blast height, (vi) target capability for withstanding blast impulse. Subsection 1.5 gives the new algorithm we developed for determining the probability of blast kill of aircraft. Section 2 gives two numerical examples to illustrate the application of our new algorithm. Example 1 assumes the specific values of all parameters and then determines P f , the probability of blast kill, to be 0.57. Example 2 lets one parameter vary at a time with all four other parameters fixed at specific values. Fig.5 shows the five curves of variation of P f with increasing value of one parameter at a time for the five parameters W d, H, R, h and l.