摘要
本文应用数学门限自回归模型和样条函数,研究了甘肃东南部的地震活动特征。结论如下:(1)甘肃东南部的地震活动具有“准周期”现象,本世纪以来已经历了三个“准周期”,目前,处于第三活动期。(2)1900年以来的地震活动处于较低的水平,大多数地震的震级为5—6级。根据本文的研究,下一次地震的震级约为5级左右,目前发震的概率为0.74.(3)震级大于4.7级地震的空间分布图象与数字模拟实验结果一致。
In this paper, the authors have studied the seismic features in the southeast Gansu Province using the mathematic threshold autoregressive model and pisewise polynomial. The results are as follow:
1) The seismicity is of a 'periodic phenomenon'. There have been 3 cycles since this century. At present, the seismicity is in the third active 'period'.
2) Since. 1900. the seismicity has been in lower level, most of earthquakes are ones with magnitude of 5—6. The next earthquake will be one with magnitude of about 5 according to the threshold autoregressive model, and its occurring probability at present is 0. 74 based on the pisewise polynomial.
3) The pattern of space distribution of earthquakes (M>4.7) is in accordance with analog-to-digital experiment.
出处
《西北地震学报》
CSCD
1992年第2期20-29,共10页
Northwestern Seismological Journal
