摘要
本文研究了西安市地裂缝的时空预测预报问题。在时间方面的预测预报采用了历史分析法、泊松旋回模型、灰色理论的Verhuist模型和时间序列分析等方法,得到了地裂缝的活跃周期:长周期为90—140年,平均为114年;中等活跃周期为10—14年,平均为12年;短周期平均为1年。空间预测采用了信息量方法,预测精度为81.6%。
This paper Studies the space-time prognosis of Xi'an ground fissures. Historic analysis method, Poisson Cycle model, Verhulst model and time series analysis were introduced to,predict the time regularity of Xi'an ground fissures. It is obtained that the long active period is 90—140 years long, the middle one is 10—14 years long and the short period is about one year. Information value method was used to analyse the space regularity, and the predicting precision is 81.6%.
出处
《西北地震学报》
CSCD
1992年第4期75-81,共7页
Northwestern Seismological Journal
