决策支持系统在情景分析中的应用

The Application of DSS in Scenario Analysis

情景分析是近年来刚刚兴起的一种将定性分析与定量分析有机地结合在一起的预测方法。本文基于情景分析的理论方法和技术手段,初次将决策支持系统引入情景分析之中,开发成功了情景分析决策支持系统。本文对情景分析决策支持系统的设计思路、总体结构、知识库和模型库的构建、系统理论模式的具体实现等问题展开了研究,从中得出了一些颇有意义的结论,并由此而提出了一些新的理论设想。

Scenario Analysis is one kind of forecasting method which is developing recently to combine qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis consistently. Basing on the theory and technology of Scenario Analysis, this paper connects DSS theory and Scenario Analysis theory first time, and has successfully developed Scenario Analysis DSSThis paper, in relation to the developing of Scenario Analysis DSS, focuses on the study of such problems as Design Thought, Basic Structure, Building of knowledge base and model base, the implementation of system model. From the above study, some important conclusions have been drawn and some new viewpoints suggested.