灰色多变量模型在对虾产量预测中的应用

Grey Multivariable Models and Prediction of Prawn Yield in Bohai Sea

渤海对虾产量是多种因素相互作用的结果。本文所建立的虾产量模型保留了对渤海对虾产量影响最大的几个海湾的幼虾补充群体作为解释变量,将它们作为多因素作用结果的灰色量来处理。用灰色系统理论的一个重要内容——多变量模型来分析各海湾幼虾对虾产量的作用。根据渤海渔场近年来幼虾相对数量和虾产量调查的资料,用同一组数据建模和检验。

In this paper, Grey System Multivariable Models GM(0,h) and GM(l,h) are used respectively to study the prediction of the prawn quantity of Bohai Sea. The examinations of forecasting errors show that on the conditions that the quantities of relative Young prawn in various bays are known, for prediction of prawn yield in the Bohai Sea, Grey Multivariable Models GM(0,h) and GM(l,h) as compared with the normal Multivariable recurrence model of the past are more precise and more reliable.