区域水资源开发利用模型及其应用

The Model and Its Application of Regional Water Resources Exploitation and Utilization

一、建模依据与模型功能 建模依据的原则主要有:1.广泛吸收以往的研究成果,特别是有关水资源综合性研究的新成果。2.密切结合省情实际,从全社会角度研究水资源与国民经济发展之间的种种联系和影响。诸如水资源对社会经济发展、产业结构调整、国民收入、人民生活等的制约和影响。3.简单、实用。模型中涉及的变量和参数不一定很多,但要结构严谨、反应灵敏,便于调整参数进行模拟运算。 模型的主要功能是:1.研究在实现计划期(《七五》时期、《八五》时期,以至2000年)国民经济发展目标的前提下,全省水资源的供求关系和解决水资源问题的途径、方法,以及全社会的承受能力。

The article treats Shanxi province as a regional unit, in the light of the goal of Shanxi national economic development, establishes a linear model group that will make the GNI per year the highest by the method of dynamic economic analysis. The model has given consideration to the water demand of the whole society and possible water delivery, the various items of water targets attained through technological progress, treatment of industrial sewage, transformation relationships in reusing water between industries and agricultures, and so on. Meanwhile, the model has studied a series of national economic problems such as the relations between industries, industrial structural adjustment, and relations among people's consumption level, final demands for products and transfer products from other provinces, and the like. The model can give 104 items of economic and technological indexes by calculating. At the end of this article, it also provides the recommended plans and relevant proposals for policies on the national economic development for the period of the seventh five year and 2000 year.